The US Election- What Does It Mean For COP29?

The expected policy shift as a result of Donald Trump’s win in yesterday’s election is a great cause for uncertainty for the global climate community. However, it is also a moment to reflect on the importance of actionable climate strategies, especially ahead of the UN’s climate negotiations due to take place next week in Baku.

Climate action in the wake of the US Presidential Election

As Donald Trump becomes President-Elect, global climate leaders reflect on what impact the US elections will have on the necessary political will to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement.

Most notably, in a repeat from his previous term in 2016, it is anticipated that Donald Trump will pull the US – one of the most polluting countries in the world – out of the historic climate treaty agreed in 2015.

Just over four years ago, on 4 November 2020, the US officially withdrew from the Paris Agreement, only to be re-entered into by Joe Biden, in February 2021. The delay in action caused by this decision is not affordable by a world expected to see a 3.1°C temperature rise over the next century, with current policies, let alone with stripped back policies from the US.

The Biden Administration that followed Trump’s first term as President saw a sharp increase in clean energy investments, largely as a result of the landmark Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which enhanced or created a variety of tax incentives for clean energy and manufacturing.

Since the beginning of 2021, over $700bn of clean investment occurred in the US, increasing year-on-year with $284bn in investment in the past year, according to the Clean Investment Monitor. During the four years 16GW of commercial-scale offshore wind projects were approved, up from an initial zero. Trump stated he will completely repeal the IRA during his campaign, which BloombergNEF estimates will result in a 17% drop in new renewable capacity additions from 2025 to 2035.

inspire investor confidence, as evidenced by the surge the clean energy sector has seen in the US in recent years.